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2024年3月30日发(作者：2012款斯柯达明锐怎么样)

The Future of Intelligence

Jeff Hawkins with Sandra Blackeslee

(Excerpt from chapter 8 of ‘ ON INTELLIGENCE’ )

It\'s hard to predict the ultimate uses of a new technology. As we\'ve seen throughout

this book, brains make predictions by analogy to the past. So our natural inclination is

to imagine that a new technology will be used to do the same kinds of things as a

previous technology. We imagine using a new tool to do something familiar, only

faster, more efficiently, or more cheaply.

Examples are abundant. People called the railroad the \"iron horse\" and the

automobile the \"horseless carriage.\" For decades the telephone was viewed in the

context of the telegraph, something that should be used only to communicate

important news or emergencies; it wasn\'t until the 1920s that people started using it

casually. Photography was at first used as a new form of portraiture. And motion

pictures were conceptualized as a variation on stage plays, which is why movie

theaters had retracting curtains over the screens for much of the twentieth century.

Yet the ultimate uses of a new technology are often unexpected and more

far-reaching than our imaginations can at first grasp. The telephone has evolved into a

wireless voice and data communications network permitting any two people on the

planet to communicate with each other, no matter where they are, via voice, text, and

images. The transistor was invented by Bell Labs in 1947. It was instantly clear to

people that the device was a breakthrough, but the initial applications were just

improvements on old applications: transistors replaced vacuum tubes. This led to

smaller and more reliable radios and computers, which was important and exciting in

its day, but the main differences were the size and reliability of the machines. The

transistor\'s most revolutionary applications weren\'t discovered until later. A period of

gradual innovation was necessary before anyone could conceive of the integrated

circuit, the microprocessor, the digital signal processor, or the memory chip. The

microprocessor, likewise, was first developed, in 1970, with desktop calculators in

mind. Again, the first applications were just replacements of existing technologies.

The electronic calculator was a replacement for the mechanical desktop calculator.

Microprocessors were also clear candidates to replace the solenoids that were then

used in certain kinds of industrial control, such as switching traffic lights. However, it

was years before the true power of the microprocessor began to be manifest. No one

at the time could foresee the modern personal computer, the cell phone, the Internet,

the Global Positioning System, or any other piece of today\'s bread-and-butter

information technology.

By the same token, we would be foolish to think we can predict the revolutionary

applications of brainlike memory systems. I fully expect these intelligent machines to

improve life in all sorts of ways. We can be sure of it. But predicting the future of

technology more than a few years out is impossible. To appreciate this you need

only read some of the absurd prognostications futurists have confidently made over

the years. In the 1950s, it was predicted that by the year 2000 we\'d all have atomic

reactors in our basements and take our vacations on the moon. But as long as we keep

these cautionary tales in mind, there\'s a lot to be gained by speculating about what

intelligent machines will be like. At a minimum, there are certain broad and useful

conclusions we can draw about the future.

The questions are intriguing ones. Can we build intelligent machines, and, if so,

what will they look like? Will they be closer to the humanlike robots seen in popular

fiction, the black or beige box of a personal computer, or something else? How will

they be used? Is this a dangerous technology that can harm us or threaten our personal

liberties? What are the obvious applications for intelligent machines, and is there any

way we can know what the fantastic applications will be? What will the ultimate

impact of intelligent machines be on our lives?

Can We Build Intelligent Machines?

Yes, we can build intelligent machines, but they may not be what you expect.

Although it may seem like the obvious thing to do, I don\'t believe we will build

intelligent machines that act like humans, or even interact with us in humanlike ways.

One popular notion of intelligent machines comes to us from movies and books—